Monday, March 16, 2015

What Happened on the Bubble?

68 teams will be dancing in March. The remainder of the 351 NCAA Division I basketball teams will not. Some of those teams have legitimate reasons to believe they should have a shot at the title, but they won't get it. Here's how the bubble shook out on Sunday.


Miami:
Record: 21-12 (10-8 ACC)
RPI: 63
BPI: 43
KenPom: 52
Best Win: RPI #5 Duke (away) 90-74
Worst Loss: RPI #157 Eastern Kentucky (home) 44-72

Miami crushed Duke AT CAMERON! How could they possibly be out? Oh, they got killed at home against EASTERN KENTUCKY? And they lost against ACC bottom dwellers Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Florida State. Okay, maybe they don't deserve to be dancing.

Result: Out




Texas:
Record: 20-13 (8-10 Big 12)
RPI: 42
BPI: 25
KenPom: 20
Best Win: RPI #10 Baylor (home) 61-59
Worst Loss: RPI #60 Stanford (home) 71-74

Texas had a couple good wins. Texas didn't have any bad losses. Texas had a lot of good losses. The metrics love Texas. They look like a tournament team on the surface. They pass the eye test with a fantastic point guard in Taylor and some above average bigs. I'm just a little concerned about their 3-12 record against the RPI top 50. They played a lot of good teams, but they didn't really beat a lot of them. Not being able to pull out the tough games could hurt them in March. I'm not sure that I would've put Texas in the tourney (giving the Big 12 an astonishing 70% of its teams in), but I also like their potential to upset a solid, but unspectacular Butler in the first round.

Result: In (11-seed)


Murray State:
Record: 27-5 (16-0 OVC)
RPI: 65
BPI: 68
KenPom: 73
Best Win: RPI #66 Illinois State (home) 89-77
Worst Loss: RPI #239 Houston (home) 74-77

Murray State lost in the Ohio Valley Conference final. They had won their previous 25 (!) games. They lost their auto bid, but were in contention to still get an at-large bid due to the rest of their resume. On ESPN's post-selection coverage, Dickie V. yelled about how it was a travesty that Murray State missed out on the tourney while teams like UCLA and Texas get to keep playing.  This seems like a backlash against the mid-majors after allowing more and more to get in, in recent years.  Think Shaka Smart's first run with VCU but no "good wins".

Result: Out


UCLA:

Record: 20-13 (11-7 Pac-12)
RPI: 49
BPI: 44
KenPom: 41
Best Win: RPI #20 Utah (home) 69-59
Worst Loss: RPI #131 Oregon St (away) 55-66

Much was made of UCLA's 7-point first half against historically dominant Kentucky. They are not the same blue-blooded UCLA we all know and expect. They finished 4th in a weak Pac-12, behind Arizona, Utah and Oregon.  They got nearly doubled up by Utah and one zero meaningful games on the road. They're probably in the field for two reasons, 1) the Pac-12 is a "Power" conference and needs to have more than 3 representatives, and 2) they're freaking UCLA.

Result: In (11-seed)


BYU:

Record: 25-9 (13-5 WCC)
RPI: 38
BPI: 30
KenPom: 31
Best Win: RPI #8 Gonzaga (away) 73-70
Worst Loss: RPI #155 San Diego (away) 74-77

BYU beat Gonzaga in their house. They're probably the sole reason Gonzaga isn't a 1-seed right now. While the rest of the WCC curled up in the fetal position as Gonzaga tore them apart, BYU sacked up and beat Zaga. But BYU also went 13-5 in that same weak WCC. They have good wins, but they certainly have bad losses.  Frankly I am surprised they are this low.  The win against Gonzaga is a fantastic win and with metrics in the 30's I would have liked to see them in the field of 64 automatically.

Result: In (11-seed)


Temple:

Record: 23-10 (13-5 American)
RPI: 34
BPI: 66
KenPom: 56
Best Win: RPI #2 Kansas (home) 77-52
Worst Loss: RPI #182 Saint Joseph's (away) 56-58

Temple put a surprise beatdown on Kansas early in the year. They were solid this year against the losers of college realignment, the former Big East teams that have D1 football and got stuck in the American Athletic Conference. Gone are most of the basketball powerhouses (poor UCONN is stranded), gone are the respectable football programs (raided by the Big 12, ACC and Big Ten), and gone is the iconic Big East name.

Result: Out


Richmond:

Record: 19-13 (12-6 A10)
RPI: 58
BPI: 59
KenPom: 51
Best Win: RPI #16 VCU (away) 64-55
Worst Loss: RPI #223 George Mason (away) 67-71

Richmond finished 4th in an always tough A10,  but I really don't think teams should get in with 13 losses (hence my issue with Texas and UCLA). 13 losses just isn't going to cut it coming out of a "high" mid-major.

Wiz: I was surprised with how poorly the committee handled the A-10 though.  Dayton as the last team in the field is a surprise, and I would rather see a team that swept VCU, and landed as the four seed in a solid conference, in the tournament as opposed to Texas or UCLA.

Result: Out


Colorado State:

Record: 27-6 (13-5 Mountain West)
RPI: 29
BPI: 57
KenPom: 68
Best Win: RPI #26 San Diego St (home) 79-73
Worst Loss: RPI #172 New Mexico (away) 53-66

Colorado State played an incredible 17 RPI 150+ teams this year. And they lost one of those games. That's why they're not dancing, despite an RPI that usually points to being a tournament team.

Wiz: Once again - would rather see them in as opposed to Texas or UCLA.  And the committee can't even use their usual crutch (RPI) as a reason to keep them out this year.  Would love to hear their reasoning on Colorado St.

Result: Out


Ole Miss:

Record: 20-12 (11-7 SEC)
RPI: 55
BPI: 36
KenPom: 44
Best Win: RPI #17 Arkansas (away) 96-82
Worst Loss: RPI #167 Charleston Southern (home) 65-66

What you think about Ole Miss depends on what you think about the SEC (outside of Kentucky) this year. I'm personally of the opinion that Ole Miss should've been the odd man out.

Result: In (11-seed)


Boise State:

Record: 25-8 (14-4 Mountain West)
RPI: 44
BPI: 54
KenPom: 39
Best Win: RPI #27 San Diego St (away) 56-46
Worst Loss: RPI #186 Fresno St (away) 64-70

Either Boise State or Colorado State was going dancing this year. Boise State had two more losses, but a noticeably harder schedule than Colorado State. It seems like another instance of the Committee weighing playing a tough slate over actually winning the games this year. I don't disagree with their selection here though.

Result: In (11-seed)

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