Wiz's Final Four Preview

The NCAA could not have asked for a better final four grouping. Michigan St, Duke, Wisconsin, and Kentucky.  Izzo, Coach K, Ryan, and Coach Cal.  What more could you ask for? Here's a quick breakdown of the games and picks for who will survive to fight on Monday.

Early Game: Duke vs Michigan St

Izzo made the point that his team has played the toughest four teams up to this point (Georgia, Virginia, Oklahoma, and Louisville).  That's true - but Duke has played tough teams all season long, and playing a talented team like Sparty will not catch them at all. The two teams played earlier this season with Duke winning easily.

What to Expect: A much more competitive game than they played in November. Izzo is a fantastic coach and his team will undoubtedly be ready for this one. The problem is, he's facing an even more fantastic coach in Coach K.  Okafor was unstoppable in the first matchup, racking up 17 points on 10 shots.  He dominated the Michigan State front line and controlled the paint on offense.  The scary thing is he's only gotten better. On the flip side, look for Valentine and Trice to try to score in bunches to keep up with the Dukies.

Key Matchup: Dawson vs Jefferson/Winslow. As usual, everyone is predicting Dawson to be the X-Factor. Everyone expects him to play well on offense, regardless of who is guarding him. I think that both Jefferson and Winslow will play better D then the analysts think, and Dawson may struggle a bit on offense. The more interesting side will be to see how he stacks up with Winslow on the other side though.  If he shuts Winslow down, expect Michigan State to hang in there, but if Winslow gets on a roll things will be tough for the Spartans.

The Pick: Okafor dominates, Winslow steps up on both ends, Trice's hot shooting ends, and Duke wins 76-66.

Late Game: Wisconsin vs Kentucky

This is the dream matchup that everyone has been hoping for. The rematch from last year's Final Four. Surprisingly, both teams are returning most players from last year's squads.  Kaminsky and Dekker have improved for Wisconsin and the Harrison twins + Cauley-Stein have another years under their belt for Big Blue. This should be a titanic matchup that goes down to the wire.

What to Expect: Expect for Kentucky to hammer away down low early on, trying to get Kaminsky into foul trouble.  On the flip side Wisconsin will play through Kamisnky on the inside and Dekker on the outside. Towns presents a matchup nightmare for Wisconsin, and Dekker will be tough for Kentucky to guard.  Look for both teams to perform surprisingly well on the offensive end.

Matchup to Watch: Towns and whoever is matched up on him. This will be a big decision for Bo Ryan. If he puts Kaminsky on him, he risks Big Frank getting into foul trouble. If he throws Hayes at him he will be giving up four inches to a talented big man.  Regardless, Towns should be getting a lot of touches early on the block. When Wisconsin's on offense it will be interesting to see if Kaminsky can get get free against Cauley-Stein. Cauley-Stein has proven to be an elite defender and should be able to take Big Frank both inside and outside. If Frank is limited, expect Wisconsin to rely on Dekker on the outside.

The Pick: As tempted as I am to take Wisconsin, I'll take Kentucky on a Harrison jumper at the buzzer 78-76.

Elite 8 Sunday Showdowns

Both of yesterday's match-ups were fantastic, down to the wire, drama filled basketball games. They were everything that makes the tournament one of the greatest sporting events year after year. Unfortunately I'm not sure we will be able to say the same about today's games.

Game 1: Louisville vs Michigan State

I said it in Friday's preview, and I'll say it again.  Louisville is a complete enigma to me, a team that keeps surprising me at how well they are able to play without a key piece of their team. This is a clash of two great tournament coaches, Rick Pitino and Tom Izzo.  Every year both these coaches lead their teams deeper in the tournament than expected and everyone acts surprised.  Maybe it is time for the committee to wisen up and seed these teams a little higher.

Saturday's Elite Eight Matchups

Disclaimer: Milli is on vacation - expect grammatical errors

Since there are no more overlapping games, we will do a deeper dive into each of the day's games. Both should be exciting, competitive games, and are the best match-ups we could have hoped for when the brackets came out two weeks ago.

First Game: Wisconsin vs Arizona

Yes - last year these two faced off in the elite eight, and Wisconsin was victorious in an epic OT game.  In the game Kaminsky went off for 28 of Wisconsin's 64 points.  In that game Dekker only made 2 FG and was a relative non-factor.  I expect the game this year to be a bit different. First off, both these teams have improved since last year.  The roster turnover is minimal, everyone has improved, and both teams seem to be clicking on all cylinders.

Sweet 16 - Friday Matchups

Obviously the tourney staggers the start time of games so you can see the end of every game, but it is likely that you will spend the majority of each viewing window watching one game.  Here are the games you should be watching today: 

I picked every game correctly in the Midwest so far... awesome.  That may or may not be the case for the other regions.  Of the eight teams playing today I only had Duke and Utah #awesome.  Enough about my bracket, here are today's match-ups.

Early Time Slot: Louisville vs NC State

Both of these teams fit the classic mold of "lots of talent but inconsistent", and both teams could make it out of the region if they win this game.  Looking back on it, the ACC was clearly undervalued by the committee and you could argue that NC State's talent is top 5 among the remaining teams. They have proven they can beat everyone (see convincing win at Duke).  Lousiville on the other hand is a complete enigma to me.  I'm surprised at how well they have played without Jones, and I will be surprised if they continue to play at that level.  I think the the three-headed guard monster of Barber, Turner, and Lacey show up, Anya neutralizes Harrell to some extent, and NC State wins relatively comfortably (note that NC State beat Lousiville in L'ville in their only prior meeting when the Cardinals still had Chris Jones).

Sweet 16 Thursday Primer

Obviously the tourney staggers the start time of games so you can see the end of every game, but it is likely that you will spend the majority of each viewing window watching one game.  Here are the games you should be watching today: 

The tourney is back tonight, and so are we, well at least I am. Milli is off gallivanting on vacation (blame the lack of editing on him).

Without further ado here are the Sweet 16 Games to Watch for Thursday:

Time Slot 1: Notre Dame vs Wichita St         

Notre Dame played two extremely exciting games last weekend and I expect that trend to continue. It is hard to see a scenario where either team is able to run away with this one.  I’m a bit surprised that Wichita State is favored actually - Notre Dame has been red hot (7 game winning streak), has the best player on the floor (Grant) and a clutch sidekick (Connaughton).  Meanwhile Wichita St went down “early” in the tourney last year, and played in a lesser conference.  I expect Notre Dame to keep their magical streak alive and win another nail biter.

Sunday Tourney Spectacular

Obviously the tourney staggers the start time of games so you can see the end of every game, but it is likely that you will spend the majority of each viewing window watching one game.  Here are the games you should be watching today: 

Early Afternoon Window: Virginia vs Michigan St

Other Games: Duke vs San Diego St (2:40 CBS)

Last year many considered this matchup to be one of the games of the tournament and there is no reason to think that history won't repeat itself. The committee did Virginia no favors by setting this rematch up and Michigan St has been playing well recently while Virginia has been struggling. The one thing Virginia has going for it is the return of Justin Anderson.  He looked significantly better on Friday than in the ACC tourney and if Virginia is going to pull this one out they will need 20-25 quality minutes from Anderson.  Look for a tight back and forth game here.  

Saturday Tourney Primer

Obviously the tourney staggers the start time of games so you can see the end of every game, but it is likely that you will spend the majority of each viewing window watching one game.  Here are the games you should be watching today: 

What a crazy - but actually not that crazy first couple of days. Now almost every game will be competitive (unless Kentucky is playing).

Afternoon Window: Kentucky vs Cincinnati

Other Games: UCLA vs UAB (12:10 CBS)

Yes - I know you can watch both these games, but if you could only watch one I would pick Cincy and Kentucky. The other game may be entertaining, but the fact is neither of these teams will advance past the Sweet 16.  I am much more interested to see how Kentucky will deal with their stiffest test since pre-conference play.  I expect UK will win, and eventually pull away, but I would not be surprised if Cincinatti keeps it close for a half.

Friday Tourney Primer

Obviously the tourney staggers the start time of games so you can see the end of every game, but it is likely that you will spend the majority of each viewing window watching one game.  Here are the games you should be watching today:

Noon Time Window: Georgia vs Michigan State

Other Games: Kansas vs New Mexico St (12:15 CBS)

I was tempted to pick the Kansas/New Mexico St game solely because of how poorly the B12 played yesterday.  After watching today's games, I really have no idea how this one will play out.  I could see a Spartan blowout, or a Dawg fight that UGA comes out on top of.  I know MSU had a great B10 tourney, but tourney success didn't pay off for Iowa State, and ND looked sluggish Thursday as well. 

Thursday Tourney Primer

Obviously the tourney staggers the start time of games so you can see the end of every game, but it is likely that you will spend the majority of each viewing window watching one game.  Here are the games you should be watching today:

Noon Window: Notre Dame vs Northeastern

 

Other Games: Iowa State vs UAB (12:40 TruTV)

Both of these games should be snoozers but will let us see whether the ACC and B12 tourney champs can stay on a roll. I think Notheastern is slightly better than UAB, and I think Notre Dame could be the victim of a slow start and/or bad shooting, which would make this game interesting.

What Happened on the Bubble?

68 teams will be dancing in March. The remainder of the 351 NCAA Division I basketball teams will not. Some of those teams have legitimate reasons to believe they should have a shot at the title, but they won't get it. Here's how the bubble shook out on Sunday.

Miami:

Record: 21-12 (10-8 ACC)

RPI: 63

BPI: 43

KenPom: 52
Best Win: RPI #5 Duke (away) 90-74
Worst Loss: RPI #157 Eastern Kentucky (home) 44-72

Miami crushed Duke AT CAMERON! How could they possibly be out? Oh, they got killed at home against EASTERN KENTUCKY? And they lost against ACC bottom dwellers Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Florida State. Okay, maybe they don't deserve to be dancing.

Result: Out

The Committee....

It seems like every year there are awesome, inspiring, capitvating story lines in the tournament.  This guy is facing the team he used to coach, this team is playing the team it got upset by the year before, these two schools are only 60 miles apart, etc.  The NCAA would like you to believe these are coincidences.  They are not.  The committee clearly rigs the system to force these matchups, and it is especially egregious this year.  We'll have more in depth breakdown of regions, teams, and predictions as the week goes along, but here's a starting point.

Wichita State is a 7 seed and Kansas is a 2 seed.  

This is absurd.