Is the Big 12 overrated?

The Big 12 has found a glitch in the matrix this year. We keep hearing about how deep the Big 12 is, and how this year’s Big 12 might be the best conference of all time. But, what I see are a bunch of inconsistent and overrated teams. They are overrated by both the traditional methods of ranking (i.e., AP poll) and by new age metrics (i.e., KenPom). It seems that the Big 12 has cracked the code behind looking like a top tier conference. By taking care of business during their out of their soft out of conference schedules, they entered the conference schedule with 6 out of 10 teams ranked in the AP. These teams have proceeded to beat up on each other, providing an entertaining but confusing Big 12 basketball season.

I dove into the numbers to try and help me decipher the Big 12 (I’ll use the RPI, since ESPN already aggregates some of the data for me). Here are some jarring numbers on the Big 12 this year:

-       Texas is 1-12 against the RPI top 50 this year after a loss against Kansas on Saturday. Yet, somehow they ranked #47 in the RPI. (and a ridiculous 22 in KenPom, while going 17-12!). At a certain point, you have to ask why Texas are still being rewarded for their tough conference schedule, and not held responsible for consistently losing to top teams. They are still miraculously on the bubble.

-       Kansas State, who will not make the tournament this year (barring a Big 12 tournament win) has gone 15-15 this season. They are almost .500 in the “tough” Big 12. They beat another “top” Big 12 team in Iowa State this weekend.

-       The Big 12 is 12-10 against nonconference RPI top 50 foes. Even if you only include the Big 12 teams that are themselves in the RPI top 50, (removing Kansas State, Texas Tech and TCU) they are only 10-7. That doesn’t project the Big 12 as the “dominant” conference that it has been touted as.

-       The Big 12 is 22-16 against the other Power 6 (I included the Big East, which to date projects five tourney teams). This is good. This is not historically dominant.

-       This has happened at least once this year.  Check out the streak column.

   
           Talk about inconsistency.

-       For the latest Bracketology (2/27), the most loses at each seed that for seeds that the Big 12 teams are projected at are:

o   2-seed: 6 losses (Kansas)

o   3-seed: 8 losses (Oklahoma and Iowa State)

o   4-seed: 7 losses (Baylor)

o   5-seed: 9 losses (UNC)

o   8-seed: 11 loses (Oklahoma State)

See a pattern? Are we, as a whole, overrating the importance of a strong schedule, and underplaying the importance of actually winning games?

Nothing I could find was particularly damning for the Big 12. But where you smell smoke, there’s likely a dumpster fire. I don’t particularly trust the Big 12 teams to hold up (where they haven’t historically, whatever that’s worth) in March. Maybe the Big 12 is truly hot shit, but more likely it’s all just a trick of the light.