Bears Shopping Brandon Marshall

UPDATE: Brandon Marshall has been traded to the Jets pending a physical! Early word is a 5th round pick. I'll make that trade every day and twice on Sunday. Percy Harvin will be on the way out, assuming Marshall passes the physical.

The Bears are reportedly shopping Brandon Marshall. Brandon Marshall is getting up there (he turns 31 this March) and is often portrayed as a locker cancer (from last season about Jay Cutler's massive contract), but he is still a premiere receiver in this league. His base salary for 2015 is $7.5 million. At this price, the Bears will find willing trade partners. Surely, there are some wide receiver needy teams interested, but at what price. For reference, the Bears dealt two 3rd round picks to acquire Marshall from the Dolphins just three years ago.


Is Marshall still a premiere receiver?

Brandon Marshall was beat up during the 2014 season. He only played in 13 games last year, because he suffered a collapsed lung that caused him to miss the last three. Even in those he wasn't playing at 100%, having suffered an ankle injury early in the season. He still managed to put up decent numbers.

SEASON	TEAM	GP	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD
2012	CHI	16	118	194	1,508	12.8	56	11
2013	CHI	16	100	163	1,295	13.0	44	12
2014-extrapolated	CHI	16	75	129	887	14.5	58	10

While those 2014 numbers are not elite, Marshall was performing at an elite level prior to his injury.

Player	SALARY (Average)	Age (Sep. 2015)	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD
Pierre Garcon	$8.5 million/year	29	68	105	752	11.1	3
Andre Johnson	$9.7 million/year	34	102	170	1,325	13.0	7
Brandon Marshall	$7.5 million/year	31	75	129	887	14.5	10
Jeremy Maclin	$8+ million/year (est.)	27	85	143	1,318	15.5	10
Randall Cobb	$8+ million/year (est.)	25	91	126	1,287	14.1	12
Torrey Smith	$7+ million/year (est.)	26	49	93	767	15.7	11
Mike Wallace	$12 million/year	29	67	115	862	12.9	10
Eric Decker	$7.3 million/year	28	79	123	1026	13.9	5
Average	$7.6 million/year	28.6	77	125	1028	13.8	8.5

By his production, he looks like a #1 receiver. And this is with a nagging ankle injury, and the emergence of Alshon Jeffery taking away from his targets. And if he returns to his 2013 production, he'd be a steal.


Will Marshall upset the current locker room chemistry?

Maybe. He's definitely a diva. He's been on three teams in his career, and he's been quick to become distraction if things aren't going well. That said, all the drama has not really effected his production.

SEASON	TEAM	GP	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD
2006-2009	DEN	15.3	82	136	1005	12.3	65.3	6.3
2010-2011	MIA	15.0	84	146	1114	13.3	55.5	4.5
2012-2014	CHI	15.0	93	154	1175	12.6	49.0	10.3

Even if Marshall is unhappy, he performs. That's all I really need from him as a professional athlete, though it wouldn't kill him to shut his mouth once in a while.


Is 31 too old for a number 1 receiver?

Receivers have performed at elite levels well past 31. Marvin Harrison had a 1300+ yard, 12 TD season at age 34. Randy Moss had a career year in 2007, at age 30. Michael Irvin had back to back 1,000 yard seasons at ages 31 and 32. While all athletes age differently, there is no reason to think that Brandon Marshall doesn't have 2-3 more productive years in him.


So, what's the verdict? I think if you really need a #1 receiver and have the cap space, you take a good hard look at Marshall. I think you jump at the chance to get Marshall if the price is a 4th rounder or lower. I just don't think your chances of getting Brandon Marshall level of production in the 4th round is all that likely. You make this move if you're trying to win now.