Friday, March 27, 2015

Sweet 16 - Friday Matchups


Obviously the tourney staggers the start time of games so you can see the end of every game, but it is likely that you will spend the majority of each viewing window watching one game.  Here are the games you should be watching today: 

I picked every game correctly in the Midwest so far... awesome.  That may or may not be the case for the other regions.  Of the eight teams playing today I only had Duke and Utah #awesome.  Enough about my bracket, here are today's match-ups.

Early Time Slot: Louisville vs NC State


Both of these teams fit the classic mold of "lots of talent but inconsistent", and both teams could make it out of the region if they win this game.  Looking back on it, the ACC was clearly undervalued by the committee and you could argue that NC State's talent is top 5 among the remaining teams. They have proven they can beat everyone (see convincing win at Duke).  Lousiville on the other hand is a complete enigma to me.  I'm surprised at how well they have played without Jones, and I will be surprised if they continue to play at that level.  I think the the three-headed guard monster of Barber, Turner, and Lacey show up, Anya neutralizes Harrell to some extent, and NC State wins relatively comfortably (note that NC State beat Lousiville in L'ville in their only prior meeting when the Cardinals still had Chris Jones).



Other Game: Gonzaga vs UCLA (7:15 CBS)

I honestly don't want to watch a single second of this game (similar to the Xavier game last night). UCLA doesn't belong in the tournament. They got gifted a first win by the refs, and played a 14 seed in the second round.  Gonzaga on the other hand has gotten extremely lucky with their bracket, they have the largest difference in seeds (9) by a wide margin (everyone else is 4 or less).  Even if Gonzaga wins this easily (and I expect they will), they will not have proven anything to me.


Late Time Slot: Duke vs Utah


The other game may prove to be more competitive in the end, but I am curious to see how Duke does in their first real test.  Utah looked sound in the first weekend, beating Stephen F Austin (trendy upset pick) and Georgetown, but I don't know if they have enough offensive horsepower to keep up with Duke.  If Winston keeps playing well, I think Duke's starting five are the best in the tournament. The foursome of Cook/Jones/Winslow/Okafor can score at will, and slowing them down will be no easy feat.  Look for Utah to hang around in the first half before Duke pulls away early in the second.  If Duke wins this one comfortably, I think it portends an epic showdown with UK at the end of the road.

Other Games:  Oklahoma vs Michigan St (10:07 TBS)

I'm having real trouble projecting this game.  On one hand, Michigan St just beat UVA, have a fantastic history of tournament success, and the B12 has been miserable all tournament.  On the other hand Michigan St has struggled with consistency this year, Oklahoma has some big wins on their resume, and Oklahoma has some guys that can flat out score (what Virginia lacked).  I think the key will be 3-point shooting, for both teams.  If Trice is cold or Oklahoma gets hot it could keep the game close. But even if Oklahoma sticks around, I expect Michigan St will pull this one out in the end, #Izzo.

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