Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Let's Grade the Draft Too Early!

Draft season has come and gone, but that doesn't mean that we have to stop talking about the draft. Football won't be played for months, so we have to fill the time with way-too-soon draft grades (we've also seen 2016 mock drafts, but that's silliness we won't even talk about today). Never mind that none of these players have played an NFL snap yet. 

These "analysts" may claim that they try to judge whether a team got value for their selections, or whether their picks fit their needs or scheme. Really though, it comes down to their opinion (not evaluation) of certain players. These guys have managed to come up with completely different grades for the same drafts. Let's take a look. Below is a table of the draft grades given by various sports news outlets (converted to a number grade for ease of calculation).




Covering the draft is completely about talking out of your ass, and these guys nailed it. Obviously, we won't be able to accurately judge the draft for a couple of years, by which time everyone will have forgotten the predictions that these analysts put out.

 A few takeaways:

- Evan Silva from Yahoo! Sports is a huge hater. His average grade was a 78 (C+). NFL.com had an far friendlier curve, with an average of 86 (B+/B).

- People panned the Bills' entire draft because they didn't have a first round pick. The thing is, the picks they traded away last year should have no bearing on the analysis of the picks that were made this year. Too bad these "analysts" are only familiar with the 1st round picks and the "trendy" sleepers.

- Speaking of "trendy" sleepers, Dallas has received some praise for their pick of Byron Jones in the first round. Jones's meteoric rise screams workout warrior. I've read that "the tape" says he can play (but don't know if anyone has actually seen it), but he's coming off a shoulder injury that caused him to miss 5 games last year. The 27 pick just seems too early for someone who was looking to be drafted on the 3rd day before the combine.

- Teams that the analysts can't agree on...Arizona (some classic Evan Silva haterade)...my Jets (some Buttfumble-tinted glasses by some of these analysts)...the Rams (a pair of A's and a pair of C's)...the Raiders (picking another 1st round WR didn't go over well, even if Amari is obviously not Darrius Heyward-Bey)

- Teams that everyone agreed on...Tampa Bay (no one wanted to risk making a definitive statement on Winston)...San Diego ()...the Seahawks (meaning that although people didn't like the draft, the 2012 draft buys the Seahawks immunity apparently)

- My favorite moment of the draft:
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