Monday, May 11, 2015

En Fuego - Bryce Harper and the Nationals

While the majority of DC sports fans have been focused on playoff hockey and basketball, the Nationals are not-so-quietly on fire right now. They've ripped off 10 wins in their last 12 games after losing 6 in a row. All 12 of these games were within the division and they have quickly surged to second in the division, only 3.5 back of the Mets.




The victories have been fueled by huge output by Bryce Harper and Washington's offense. Let's dig into Bryce's numbers this year.


Bryce Harper has long been lauded as the next big thing and has become so "over-rated" that he is now in fact under-rated. Part of this is due to Mike Trout's meteoric rise and Harper's own injury issues. This year however, Harper is fifth in Offensive WAR. FIFTH. Out of all players - behind Cruz, Goldschmidt, Gonzalez, and Trout.


Let's take a quick comparison of Trout and Harper - who will be forever tied due to their age and position.



While Harper won't be ripping off 6 homers in 3 games, and won't have a 50 home run season this year, a lot of his numbers are sustainable. The walk rate is a fantastic sign - and is really propping up his .433 OBP. He's getting on base more than Trout, and hitting for more power than Trout this year. The one part where Harper is trailing Trout this year is on the defensive side - which is a bit surprising considering Harper's pace and laser arm.

I'm not the biggest believer in the advanced defensive metrics but they seem to conflict over Harper. Some trend positive and some negative. But Harper already has 3 outfield assists, with at least one saving a game, and he passes the eye-test defensively. 

On the young season Harper has already surpassed his WAR from last season, and has to be considered a contender for NL MVP at this point.  Perhaps the scariest thing about the National's resurgence is that they have done all of this without Anthony Rendon (he of 6+ WAR a season ago).


If Rendon comes back healthy and is able to contribute, it is scary to think of how good this team may be. It will be another weapon in the stable, and the lineup will be perhaps the scariest in the NL from top to bottom.

The best part of all of this is that you can make a compelling case for the National's without even mentioning the absurd pitching staff. #Where'sMyRing


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