Wiz's Final Four Preview

The NCAA could not have asked for a better final four grouping. Michigan St, Duke, Wisconsin, and Kentucky.  Izzo, Coach K, Ryan, and Coach Cal.  What more could you ask for? Here's a quick breakdown of the games and picks for who will survive to fight on Monday.

Early Game: Duke vs Michigan St

Izzo made the point that his team has played the toughest four teams up to this point (Georgia, Virginia, Oklahoma, and Louisville).  That's true - but Duke has played tough teams all season long, and playing a talented team like Sparty will not catch them at all. The two teams played earlier this season with Duke winning easily.

What to Expect: A much more competitive game than they played in November. Izzo is a fantastic coach and his team will undoubtedly be ready for this one. The problem is, he's facing an even more fantastic coach in Coach K.  Okafor was unstoppable in the first matchup, racking up 17 points on 10 shots.  He dominated the Michigan State front line and controlled the paint on offense.  The scary thing is he's only gotten better. On the flip side, look for Valentine and Trice to try to score in bunches to keep up with the Dukies.

Key Matchup: Dawson vs Jefferson/Winslow. As usual, everyone is predicting Dawson to be the X-Factor. Everyone expects him to play well on offense, regardless of who is guarding him. I think that both Jefferson and Winslow will play better D then the analysts think, and Dawson may struggle a bit on offense. The more interesting side will be to see how he stacks up with Winslow on the other side though.  If he shuts Winslow down, expect Michigan State to hang in there, but if Winslow gets on a roll things will be tough for the Spartans.

The Pick: Okafor dominates, Winslow steps up on both ends, Trice's hot shooting ends, and Duke wins 76-66.

Late Game: Wisconsin vs Kentucky

This is the dream matchup that everyone has been hoping for. The rematch from last year's Final Four. Surprisingly, both teams are returning most players from last year's squads.  Kaminsky and Dekker have improved for Wisconsin and the Harrison twins + Cauley-Stein have another years under their belt for Big Blue. This should be a titanic matchup that goes down to the wire.

What to Expect: Expect for Kentucky to hammer away down low early on, trying to get Kaminsky into foul trouble.  On the flip side Wisconsin will play through Kamisnky on the inside and Dekker on the outside. Towns presents a matchup nightmare for Wisconsin, and Dekker will be tough for Kentucky to guard.  Look for both teams to perform surprisingly well on the offensive end.

Matchup to Watch: Towns and whoever is matched up on him. This will be a big decision for Bo Ryan. If he puts Kaminsky on him, he risks Big Frank getting into foul trouble. If he throws Hayes at him he will be giving up four inches to a talented big man.  Regardless, Towns should be getting a lot of touches early on the block. When Wisconsin's on offense it will be interesting to see if Kaminsky can get get free against Cauley-Stein. Cauley-Stein has proven to be an elite defender and should be able to take Big Frank both inside and outside. If Frank is limited, expect Wisconsin to rely on Dekker on the outside.

The Pick: As tempted as I am to take Wisconsin, I'll take Kentucky on a Harrison jumper at the buzzer 78-76.