2004 - Eli Manning (1st) and Phillip Rivers (4th)
These two will be forever linked (for obvious reasons). Eli Manning is the definition of inconsistent, but he also has two Super Bowl rings. I doubt the Giants would complain, even when he does things like this:
Rivers has put up gaudy stats since he took over for Brees in San Diego, but is only 4-5 in the playoffs. He's made one AFC Championship Game (which he lost), and hasn't won the division since 2009. Still, I'd take what Rivers has done 10 of 10 times for the #4 pick in the draft.
2005 - Alex Smith (1st)
Alex Smith has certainly been eclipsed by the 2nd quarterback taken in this draft (Rodgers), but he's put together a decent little career. He's 58-49-1 as a starter (including a 1-2 playoff mark). You could win a Super Bowl with Smith, but there's a reason Harbaugh decided to move on to Kaepernick. Alex Smith's inability to stretch the field (a career 6.6 YPA) means the offense needs to execute at a higher level to be successful. He doesn't win you many games on his own, which is less than I'd want when burning the #1 pick on a QB.
2006 - Vince Young (3rd), Matt Leinart (10) and Jay Cutler (11)
The two QBs who faced off in one of most memorable college games of my lifetime, the 2006 Rose Bowl, both went in the first 10 picks of the 2006 draft. In their professional careers, they never came close to the success they reached in college. Neither has played in an NFL game since 2012 (2011 for Young).
Jay Cutler is built in the Brett Favre mold, just with less talent. Say what you will about Cutler, but he's easily the best QB in this draft class.
2007 - JaMarcus Russell (1st)
JaMarcus Russell lasted 3 years in the league. Nowadays, he weighs somewhere near 400 pounds. I miss JaMarcus. I'm no longer able to watch him overthrow a receiver, and give literally no shits that he just overthrew a receiver:
2008 - Matt Ryan (3rd)
Matt Ryan looks great on paper. He's 66-44 career, a mark that's been coming back down to earth after consecutive losing seasons. He's just 1-4 in his playoff career. His career playoff numbers are mediocre (especially if you just look at the first 3 playoff trips, before he was able to finally win a playoff game). Is this kind of postseason production enough from the 3rd overall pick?
2009 - Matt Stafford (1st) and Mark Sanchez (5th)
Plenty of people would consider Matt Stafford a good quarterback. Why? He has a 35-42 career record. Removing his rookie season and his injury-plagued 2010, he is still only .500 (32-32). He's played in two career playoff games, losing both. I'd want more from a #1 overall pick.
The Sanchize get a lot of crap. He has a winning career record (courtesy of a stellar running game and defense during his time with the Jets), which is more than most NFL quarterbacks can claim. He brought the Jets to consecutive AFC Championship games (I'm kidding, he was dragged their by the Jets's "Ground and Pound"), making him one of the more accomplished postseason quarterbacks on our list so far. I wonder why people rag on him so much....
Oh yeah...so there's that.
2010 - Sam Bradford (1st)
Sam Bradford has played 49 games over 5 seasons for the St. Louis Rams. Yes, that's correct. He average less than 10 games a season. He's looked good at times, but has shown an inability to throw the ball downfield (6.3 YPA career). We'll see if he can turn it around in Philly, but man...that really isn't a lot of production for a 6-year, $78 million contract and a first overall pick.
2011 - Cam Newton (1st), Jake Locker (8th) and Blaine Gabbert (10th)
Super Cam is a pedestrian 30-31-1 (and 1-2 in the playoffs) in four years as a starter. I'd say the jury is still out on Cam.
The same cannot be said of the other QBs picked in the first 10 picks of the 2011 draft. Jake Locker showed flashes throughout his career, but injuries forced him into an early retirement at age 26. And Blaine Gabbert is downright awful. His 53.2% career completion percentage just won't cut it in the NFL. Maybe that's just what happens when you play for the Jags, but I don't foresee a career resurgence for Blaine.
2012 - Andrew Luck (1st), RGIII (2nd) and Ryan Tannehill (8th)
We've all heard how Andrew Luck is a "once in a generation talent" at quarterback. So far, he's been living up to the hype. He's what you're hoping you get when you draft a QB 1st overall. Neither Jameis or Mariota are the layups that Andrew Luck was.
RGIII sprinted out of the gate during his rookie season, winning Rookie of the Year, making the playoffs and getting a Prow Bowl nod. Ever since, he's been plagued by injury and inconsistent play. He was benched for Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy, both far inferior talents. RGIII still has time to turn it around (I was hoping the Jets would take a flier on him), but knee injuries can be hard to come back from.
Ryan Tannehill was the 3rd QB taken in this draft. He's gone 7-9, 8-8 and 8-8. So, he's missed the playoffs in his first three years in the NFL, but been close each time. Still, I'm not of the opinion that Tannehill has it. The egg (7 total points of offense) he laid in consecutive games to the Bills and the Jets to end the 2013 season (and miss the playoffs) is a red flag.
So, as you can see, spending a 1st round pick on a QB isn't a guarantee for success. But, with the consistent lack of talent available in free agency pool, teams will continue to make these picks in hope of landing a Manning or a Luck. Out of the 16 QBs above, only 8 have winning records in their career. Of those 8, two are Mark Sanchez and Vince Young, who you'd have to be crazy to tout as a draft success. In recent history, drafting a first round quarterback has not lead to success. It seems to lead to a future of middling mediocrity. The new rookie pay-scale (the last QB on the old pay-scale on this list is Bradford) will lessen the blow of missing on a top 10 pick, but teams looking at Famous Jameis and Mariota must recognize that just picking a top QB doesn't in itself lead a team to success.
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